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The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy introduces new challenges for balancing electricity supply and demand and maintaining sufficient flexibility in power systems. This study applies System Dynamics modelling to investigate how increasing shares of wind and solar generation affect the behaviour of the German electricity system.
A quantitative model of the German electricity market was developed to simulate hourly interactions among electricity demand, supply, market price and net imports. The model represents conventional and renewable generation technologies. Historical electricity-market data were used for model calibration and validation. Scenario analyses were subsequently conducted to explore alternative developments of the generation mix towards 2030, 2040 and 2050.
The results show that increasing wind and solar generation leads to more frequent periods of electricity oversupply and contributes to greater price volatility. However, the simulations indicate that negative electricity prices are not driven solely by high renewable generation. Limited flexibility of conventional power plants can amplify system imbalances because a minimum level of conventional generation remains connected during periods of high renewable output and low residual demand. As variable renewable penetration increases, the remaining conventional generators are consequently required to ramp and cycle more frequently.
The analysis demonstrates that the transition towards a renewable-dominated electricity system changes the system challenge from primarily providing sufficient generation capacity to providing sufficient temporal flexibility. The modelling results highlight the increasing importance of flexible generation, demand-side flexibility, energy storage and stronger market integration for maintaining an economically efficient high-renewable power system.
| Topic Area | Computational Intelligence for Power Systems |
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